Facebook
X
Pinterest
Copy Link
If you’ve been following the real estate headlines lately, you’ve probably heard some version of the same story: inventory is rising, buyers have more choices, and the market is slowing down.
That’s not entirely wrong-but it misses what is happening here along the coast.
In Newport Beach, Corona Del Mar, Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel and Dana Point, the market remains relatively supply-constrained. As of late August, all five markets were still below the traditional six-month threshold for a buyer’s market. Dana Point had approximately 2.8 months, Laguna Niguel 3.6 months, Newport Beach 5.1 months and Laguna Beach 5.8 months.
So yes, buyers have more room than they did a year or two ago. But that doesn’t mean every seller is suddenly negotiating from a position of weakness.
Inventory tells only half the story
Across those five coastal markets, active inventory actually declined from during the week of August 24, while pending sales increased.
That’s an important distinction.
A market can have more homes available than it did previously without having an oversupply of homes.
And that is essentially where Coastal Orange County sits today: more choice, but still meaningful demand.
Days on market are becoming more important
But coastal markets can behave very differently depending on the property.
Newport Beach, for example, had a median of 65 days on market in August according to Realtor.com, while Laguna Beach was at 82 days.
And here’s the part I think is most important for both buyers and sellers:
The median days on market doesn’t tell you how quickly a correctly priced home will sell.
The list-price-to-sale-price gap is where the story gets interesting
In Coastal Orange County, homes that sell quickly are generally selling much closer to-or even above-their asking prices.
Homes that sit are a different story.
That’s a huge difference.
And it creates what I would call a two-speed market.
Price it correctly -> attract attention -> create urgency -> sell efficiently.
Price it optimistically -> sit -> reduce -> negotiate from a weaker position.
This doesn’t mean sellers need to underprice their homes. Quite the opposite. It means pricing strategy matters more than ever.
The luxury market is especially sensitive to pricing
At the higher end, the gap can become even more pronounced.
And Newport Beach provides an excellent illustration of why looking only at active listings can be misleading. Recent local data shows active Newport Beach inventory taking substantially longer to sell than homes that are actually moving through escrow.
In other words, the homes sitting on the market aren’t necessarily representative of what buyers are actually willing to pay.
What does this mean if you’re buying?
Buyers have something they haven’t had much of in recent years:
options
You don’t necessarily have to waive every contingency, offer dramatically over asking or make a decision in 12 hours.
But that doesn’t mean every property is negotiable.
If a home is beautifully presented, appropriately priced and hits the market in a desirable coastal neighborhood, there may still be significant competition.
The better opportunity is often found in the homes that have been sitting for 30, 60 or 90 days-particularly when the seller has already adjusted the price.
That’s where days on market become a negotiating tool.
What does this mean if you’re selling?
The market isn’t telling sellers that their homes aren’t valuable.
It’s telling them that buyers are increasingly sophisticated about value.
The days of putting a number on a listing simply because you would like to get that number-and assuming the market will eventually catch up-are becoming much less forgiving.
Your first few weeks on the market matter.
Your presentation matters.
Your pricing matters.
And perhaps most importantly, your strategy needs to be based on what comparable homes are actually selling for, not just what other sellers are asking.
The coastal Orange County takeaway
I don’t think we’re looking at a collapsing coastal market.
I think we’re looking at a more normal market.
There is inventory. Buyers have more leverage. Homes are taking longer to sell in many segments. And sellers are increasingly having to meet the market rather than dictate it.
But desirable homes that are priced correctly are still moving.
That’s actually healthy.
It means the market is becoming more selective-not disappearing.
For buyers, this can create opportunity. For sellers, it makes preparation and pricing more important than ever.
And in Coastal Orange County, the most useful question isn’t simply “How much inventory is there?”
It’s:
“What is actually selling-and at what price?”
